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If I may... The study that showed the advantages was done by Andy Stoeckel and Derek Quirke, from the Centre for International Economics - where I work. While it is true that all modelling excercises require assumptions, these are some of the best economists and modellers in Australia and I am inclined to believe them. The counter-study was done by Greg Cutbush, from ACIL consulting. Greg is a friend of mine and I chatted to him about his results. His point was not that the FTA was bad for Australia, but that the modelling was quite sensitive to various assumptions. In response to Greg's report, one of the best economists I have ever met (David Pearce, also from CIE) had a look through both reports and while he accepts that models aren't the real world - he believes that the initial study is the best analysis available given current information. We can never be certain - but uncertainty does not justify never taking a position or having an opinion. Based on the best information availabe, my position is that there will be a minor benefit to Australia from the US FTA.
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