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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8512-2002Sep26.html
Baghdad Is Planning For Urban Warfare
Strategy Opposite of Gulf War Approach
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, September 27, 2002; Page A01
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Sept. 26 -- Iraq's military likely would respond to a U.S. invasion by attempting to lure American forces close to Baghdad and other large population centers, where Iraqi commanders believe their soldiers would be less vulnerable to airstrikes and civilians would be more willing to fight for the government, according to senior government officials and diplomats here. The strategy appears based on Iraq's experience in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when it lost thousands of soldiers in its vast southern desert. During that war, U.S. ground forces were able to easily overrun Iraqi troops, whose trenches and bunkers provided little cover from American artillery and bombs. Now, Iraqi officials have indicated that they would fight a very different war by shielding their soldiers in cities and trying to draw U.S. forces into high-risk urban warfare. "Take the desert," Mohammed Mehdi Saleh, a senior member of President Saddam Hussein's cabinet, said in an interview today. "What's in the desert? If they want to change the political system in Iraq, they have to come to Baghdad. We will be waiting for them here." Although there has been no visible military buildup on Baghdad's streets in recent weeks, Western military analysts say they believe there are at least three divisions of the army's Republican Guard, Hussein's best-trained and most loyal troops, stationed in and around this sprawling capital of 4.8 million people. The main Iraqi opposition group, the Iraqi National Congress, reported this week that Hussein had centralized command of the Republican Guard and had ordered new fortifications built around Baghdad. It is unclear whether the talk of urban warfare here reflects firmly held battle plans or is intended as a verbal counterpunch to threats emanating from Washington. Iraqi officials have not commented about troop deployments other than to emphasize their readiness. "We take this very seriously," an adviser to Hussein said. "We are fully prepared for any eventuality." "They believe they have a tactical advantage in the cities because they can mix with the civilian population," a diplomat here said. "If soldiers start sniping from apartment buildings filled with people, what can the Americans do? They can't very well blow them up." American military analysts say, however, that they already have anticipated that a war in Iraq could be fought mainly in urban areas, and some suggest part of the civilian population would in fact come to the aid of an invasion force by pinpointing locations of Iraqi security forces. The continued enforcement by the United States and Britain of "no-fly" zones over northern and southern Iraq has also contributed to the government's strategy to mobilize many of its forces around Baghdad and other cities in the central part of the country, according to diplomats here. Since shortly after the Gulf War ended, U.S. and British pilots have targeted Iraqi antiaircraft guns, surface-to-air missile batteries and radar installations in a broad swath of the country's north and south. In the latest such strike, U.S. warplanes attacked the airport in the southern port city of Basra, damaging a radar system and the terminal building, Iraq said today. The state-run television channel called the incident "a terrorist act" that breached international civil aviation regulations. A Pentagon spokesman confirmed that aircraft from the U.S.-British coalition attacked the airport, saying that the facility housed a military radar installation. The spokesman said coalition aircraft struck the airport and another target about 80 miles south of Baghdad shortly after midnight this morning, about 90 minutes after Iraq fired at coalition planes. The Pentagon did not specify the location of the Iraqi attacks. The southern no-fly zone, which begins at the 32nd parallel, was designed to protect Shiite Muslims, who rebelled after the Gulf War. The northern zone, beginning at the 36th parallel, is intended to safeguard ethnic Kurds who have carved out an autonomous enclave. A senior Iraqi official accused the United States of increasing the frequency and intensity of its strikes in the no-fly zones as prelude to a ground invasion. "They're preparing for more aggression," the senior official said. "Their first step is destroying all our installations in the north and south through the excuse of protecting their so-called no-fly zone." Pentagon officials have denied that they have increased the number of no-fly patrols or attacks in recent months. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. pilots have recorded 175 incidents in which their aircraft have been fired on in the southern no-fly zone, according to the U.S. Central Command. U.S. pilots have returned fire and targeted Iraqi air defenses 34 times, and nine of those strikes have occurred this month. The Central Command estimates that Iraq has about 700,000 active-duty and reserve troops. Iraq's stated figures are much higher: State-controlled media have reported that at least a million Iraqis have received military training and have been inducted into a reserve force. Neither assertion could be independently verified; accurate information about the size and strength of the Iraqi military is closely held. The Republican Guard has been specially trained for urban warfare, according to diplomats and military analysts. The U.S. military estimates that Iraq has six Republican Guard divisions, each with between 8,000 and 10,000 soldiers, and one Special Republican Guard division assigned to protect Hussein and his most vital installations. Western military analysts say they believe there are no Republican Guard units south of the 32nd parallel, suggesting that Hussein has placed less importance on defending the southern border than he has on protecting Baghdad. In addition to Baghdad, analysts said, the military is reinforcing defenses around Tikrit, Hussein's home town, located along the Tigris River about 100 miles north of the capital. There appeared to be a high level of military activity in Tikrit on Tuesday, with several uniformed soldiers on the streets and a convoy of armed militiamen patrolling the highway. Tikrit, which is surrounded by at least two large military bases, is regarded by Western officials as a place from where Hussein draws his strongest support and where many of the government's security activities are coordinated. Hussein also reportedly has several presidential palaces in the area. "Tikrit will be protected as well, if not better, than Baghdad," a diplomat here said. "It is the heart of the regime." How ordinary Iraqis will react to a U.S. invasion remains unclear. Government officials insist that most people will join the military in defending the country, but several civilians interviewed over the past week said they have little desire to participate in a war. "We'll stay at home," said Samir Lewis, 59, a pharmacist in the northern city of Mosul. "We're tired of war. If it happens, we hope it will end quickly."
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