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Despite your (true to form) strawman argument about voting in the 2001 election, I agree - Labor didn't lose because of the aslyum seeker fiasco. The ALP swapped a 6-point lead in Newspoll in June for the opposite by the end of August, and never regained it. It might have recovered, but then September 11 convulsed the political landscape and virtually guaranteed Howard reelection (as it would have any incumbent, let alone Opportunist Johnny). His response to and political manipulation of the rescue pictures was just a natural move given his entire political stance had gone over to domestic chest-puffing and foreign adventurism in the shadow of the hegemon.
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