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» The Rational Warmonger - Cost Benefit Analysis   2002-10-16 23:43 Strawman

ProCon

Because it will give a clear message to despots who support anti-western terrorism that this will reduce, not increase, their chances of staying in power. It will set a precedent for invading other countries, making it will be harder to criticize (or deter) other invaders in the future.

Which is a more important precedent to set? Fundamental human rights abuses are abuses regardless of whether they are ordered from across a political boundary or not.

It will give a clear message to the fundamentalist Islamic world about attacking Western nations. It will increase Islamic hatred of Australia, already apparently at an all-time high, and make us a target.

Don't assume we are dealing with civilized people. All these people understand is power and force. Clearly the West has the upper hand here because Islam governance makes nations weak (yet another reason they hate the West). Fanatics cannot be reasoned with or placated - only cowered.

Because it will kill lots of Arabs. Don't laugh - for many people this is a plus, and this is just a list of the arguments, and in a democracy this has to be considered. Because it will kill lots of people (including Arabs).

How many people will die is hard to tell - it depends on how long it takes for Saddam's regime to fold. However it might be sensible to recall the doomsayer's estimates of 'millions of deaths' before the '91 war before being fooled again. Bear in mind that Iraqis are suffering and dying now because of Saddam's abuses and because of Western sanctions.

It will restore sovereignty of Iraq to the Iraqi people. Iraq could become the first Arabic democracy in the Middle East. Iraq was quite a civilized country right into the '70s, and has the potential to be as good a democracy as Turkey. It will be perceived by many as taking sovereignty away from Iraq - particularly with the Islamic mindset which regards democracy as evil.

A successful, democratic and 'moderate' Iraq will both damage and discredit the fundamentalist Islamic mindset. If the US is in and then out within 18 months, there will quite clearly be a long term benefit.

Because the US are going in, and strengthening the alliance is a good thing. Particularly if there is going to be a future war with Islam. Because we should be seen as making our own decisions and not blindly following the US.

The feel good factor from pseudo-patriots running around saying 'look at us, we are independent' is about as sensible as the red-necks regarding Arab deaths as a plus. It's irrational and short-sighted.

It will bring down the price of oil. It will cost money.

Which of these is greater is anyone's guess.

We can send all the Iraqi asylum seekers who came here illegally (and were given Temporary Protection Visas) home.The war, like all wars, will generate more refugees.

In fact, what generates refugees is despotism. The point of this war is to remove it.

It will install a democracy in the heart of the Middle East, and the push for democracy may spread to other Middle Eastern states.It will cause regional instability.

Revolution is a good thing if it results in long-term democracy.

It will enable the sanctions against Iraq to be lifted, and the suffering which this causes can end. The sanctions could be lifted anyway.

The problem with lifting sanctions is that much of the Iraqi economic surplus will be used for weapons building. Regime change will solve both problems.

Because it will lower the chances of WMDs falling into the hands of Islamic terrorists. If there are WMDs they will be used in the war.

If they are used in the war, they will (probably) be used in Iraq against soldiers who are equipped to combat it. Surely this is a preferable location to an Australian city?