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| Masters of Diplomacy | |
China has criticized
suggestions of Australian
investment in the US Star-Wars-II style missile defense shield. Such a defense
shield is still just experimental, but is being carefully considered by the US government, and there are
suggestions that Australia could get a slice of the action - for a
price. Chinese officials said that such a move was unnecessary, provocative,
destabilizing, and would result in a regional arms race. Before thinking that only the inscrutable Chinese would label the installation
of bars on their neighbor's windows as 'provocative', it's worth studying the
big picture here. Star-Wars-I, rightly or wrongly, is frequently attributed with the collapse
of the Soviet Union. It
was the last big dollar item in the Cold War arms race which the Soviet military couldn't match,
before the collapse of the entire socialist empire. While the Chinese empire is a little more robust, it still suffers the
occasional tremor in the outlying regions. The more nations climb aboard the
missile defense shield, the more money will be spent on it, and
the higher its chances of succeeding. And if it works, Taiwan will get it. The Chinese hate Taiwan because it is a clear demonstration of the economic, ethical and military failure of their own
corrupt regime. A
missile-shielded Taiwan would also be more inclined to claim independence from
China - the mere suggestion of which sends Chinese officials into an indignant
rage. And even if the missile defense technology doesn't work, such projects tend
to have other technological spin-offs
which the Chinese will be locked out of, and realistically can't afford. China, with its huge population and fast growing economy, hopes to take over
from the US as having the world's largest economy (and by implication the
largest military) in two or three decades. Hardly surprising that they don't
want any 'destabilizing' technologies thrown into the soup. There are two make-or-break technologies which may shape the future of
warfare within two decades. One is the missile defense (shooting a bullet with
a bullet is a tricky thing to do), the other is software which can
intelligently handle UCAVs
(un-manned fighter jets). UCAVs can do 15G rolls and such-like because
they don't have to worry about squashing the human occupant who is likely to
pass out at around 8Gs. Hence they could in principle out-perform all current
fighter aircraft, and achieve air supremacy. A nation with a monopoly on these
technologies could rule the world in two decades, and the Chinese know it. However this is still all science fiction, and there may be a more useful
short-term strategy - getting the Chinese to squash North Korea. A quiet word
to the Chinese that North Korean aggression will make South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia all join the
missile defense program might concern China enough to denounce North Korea's
current belligerence. When the guns go silent in Iraq, that may be enough to cower
the attention-seeking Kim Jong Il. Then a cooler reactor core in Pyong Yang could cool tempers all around.
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