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    » Chechen Rebel Yell!   2003-01-04 15:49 Strawman
    Casualty: Credibility

    The first casualty of any war, they say, is the truth. In the case of the Russia's Chechen conflict, the second seems to have been their credibility.

    ABC 2002-01-03 reports that a Russian officer has been acquitted of murdering a young Chechen woman in March 2000. The officer was acquitted on the grounds of suffering 'temporary insanity'.

    The officer was apparently so insane that he abducted the 18 year old woman and strangled her during interrogation. We was also insane enough to rape and sodomize her. And the insanity must have been contagious because other reports reveal that his colleagues had tried to incinerate the woman's body to hide the evidence.

    Sadly, rape, torture and murder occur in nearly every war, and by soldiers (and civilians) on nearly every side. Sadly too, military officials try to cover them up. The more undisciplined and corrupt the soldiers (yes, they were Russian) the more it happens. But the real test of a nation's character is what happens when the cases go to trial.

    It is a little hard to sympathize with a people who elect a government which appoints a judiciary which acquits murdering rapists.

    Russia has just lost any credibility it had as the legitimate government of Chechnya - it will simply be regarded as an invading and pillaging force. After the theatrical, and tragic, hostage drama late last year, Chechen rebels are unlikely to make the mistake of taking hostages again, but the Russian people can expect the less-than-temporary-insanity of more suicide bombings in Moscow.

    » Happy New Year - Now, Bye Bye   2003-01-01 11:51 Strawman
    Your taxes at work

    Bushfires are known to spread rapidly, but over the last three days fires have been spreading between detention centers in Baxter, Woomera, Port Hedland, Villawood and even Christmas Island! Initially rejectee-apologists were claiming that it could be accidental - a claim that even the Baktiaris would be reluctant to put their visa application. But now the rejectee-apologists have changed tack, and are blaming the government's policy detention policy.

    Detainees, they say, have been reduced to this because of the inhumane policy of rejecting their applications and sending them home. In other words, one fire would have been accidental, but nine are justified.

    It's easy to believe that these detainees are thugs who believe that the best way to get what they want is through threats, intimidation, violence and arson, but that would be ignoring the facts. These people have already had their applications refused. They have gone through the entire appeal process, and lost at every stage. They have no chance of staying in Australia, and fully understand they are going to be sent home.

    These are not people who just use violence and arson for a purpose - they are people who use violence and arson even when there is no purpose.

    This is just Payback: payback to the Australian people; payback to the taxpayer; payback for saying "we don't want people like you in our country"; payback for making a judgment which now seems to have been vindicated.

    » A Regime Change in the Air   2002-12-31 00:05 Strawman
    Suddenly Redundant

    Sometimes arguments of fact become irrelevant, as pragmatics overtake truth. The Middle East (a part of the world where truth has always been pretty much 'pragmatic') is about to experience more of the same. The year-long argument over 'does Saddam have have WMDs or not?' has just been overtaken by the pragmatics of Oriental politics - the North Korean situation.

    The US have said that they can fight a war on two fronts (Iraq and North Korea), but they don't want to.

    The US war machine is not a mindless mob of Lord-of-the-Rings style zombies who dart into the fray and start hacking at anything smelling of kimchi. They are expert and highly specialized, and being able to choose the exact tool for the job will make a significant difference. Spreading them across the world will cost lives - picking their enemies off one by one means every tool is available when it's needed.

    Significantly too, they can't take on North Korea, all the Middle East and China at the same time. These countries have scores to settle - China has a score to settle with Taiwan (because they have been more successful than they are), North Korea has a score to settle with South Korea (because they have been more successful than they are), and the Middle Eastern countries have a score to settle with just about everyone (because they are more successful than they are). The US can't take them all on at the same time.

    If the the US just pulled out of the Middle East, Saddam would start harassing his neighbors again, and that would threaten the oil supplies. The US war machine will grind to a halt unless it's well oiled - so the US has to effect regime change in Iraq to stabilize the Middle East (and hence stabilize the oil supply).

    North Korea has been emboldened by the US focus on Iraq and seems to think this is a good time to put the squeeze on - but the most likely effect will be to bring forward the coming Gulf War II (WW-III will have to wait).

    There may be honor among thieves, but there's no love lost between dictators. Right now, Saddam's worst enemy is North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il.

    » North Korea's Showdown   2002-12-29 01:35 Strawman
    Asia's Playboy Dictator

    It's sometimes hard to understand what goes on in the closed doors of the rulers of communist nations. Democracies on the other hand tend to leak like sieves,

    After playing brinksmanship in 1994, North Korea won significant concessions from the Clinton administration for terminating their nuclear program - specifically

    • Two light-water reactors
    • 500,000 tonnes of fuel per year

    Not a bad payoff for a few weeks of blackmail.

    Eight years later, the North Koreans are playing brinksmanship again. After admitting that they continued to develop nuclear technology anyway, the Dubya administration stopped the aid, and the fuel shipments. The Pyongyang government has been squealing about being 'double crossed' for the last few weeks, and no-one really cared, but now they have reopened one of their reactors which is suitable for bomb-making.

    Dictatorships talk tough for two reasons, either

    • They think they can get consessions through bluffing - it worked with the Clinton administration in 1994;
    • It is a response to internal power struggles - such as the shaky Argentinian Junta taking the Fauklands in 1982 to gain popular support from a suitably ignorant and machismo public.

    There are no obvious power plays in Pyongyang at the moment (although information on the reclusive Stalinist state is pretty sketchy). It seems more likely that this is in response to the recognition that a quarter of the North Korean population is likely to starve this winter - something must have gone wrong in the people's paradise utopian socialist state. Every North Korean knows that all the problems are the fault of the Americans, and none of them can say why.

    The North Korean government wants some kind of change - because they realize their system is not working. Their insight doesn't go as far as recognizing that they are the problem, but with dictators it rarely does. Any solution which reduces Kim Jong Il's quota of Western call-girls would be unthinkable. So it's back to squeezing what they can out of the US tit.

    Their insight also doesn't go as far as realizing that they are no longer dealing with a soft Clinton administration. The only hard thing about Clinton was his .. ego. Dubya uses quite a different blunt instrument, and is saying that he can fight a war on two fronts - Iraq and North Korea simultaneously.

    But it all depends on China. While China no longer has the ideological ties with North Korea, old habits die hard, and the old guard in China still have control. A political struggle in China could make it convenient to paint an American attack on North Korea as an precursor to an attack on 'Middle Kingdom', and the Korean War would replay all over again, with super-powers fighting their battles in North Korea.

    All of which seems like good reason to play out the 1991 Gulf war over again - and soon. It will get rid of some of the uncertainty.

    But in the age of live CNN coverage, they will be under pressure to change the endings of both wars - they weren't very popular with the US public, and democracy (unlike dictatorships) demands popular outcomes.

    And besides Dubya doesn't want to replay his daddy's second election campaign.

    » Lies, Damned Lies and Political Statistics   2002-12-28 22:17 Strawman
    Who gets the biggest slice?

    Some interesting statistics are mentioned in The Australian 2002-12-28-p6, which explores the relationship between country of birth and voting choice.

    It claims:

    • 47% of Australian-born citizens voted for the Coalition in the 2001 election.
    • 37% of migrants from non-English speaking backgrounds voted for the coalition.
    • Voting patterns from Britain, New Zealand and Ireland migrants closely resembled those of Australian born citizens.
    • The ALP holds 17 of the top 20 most 'multicultural' electorates ('multiculturalism is the percentage of voters born overseas).

    Migrants from non-English speaking countries, apparently favor a government which hands out more welfare. This is certainly consistent with the notion that many of these people come to Australia not to produce, but merely to take advantage of the welfare system.

    The article also explores education level, claiming

    • 38% of Australian-born voters with a bachelor degree voted coalition.
    • 54% of Australian-born voters with a trade qualification voted coalition.

    The ALP has tried to sell itself as both the defender of the working classes and also the defenders of minority groups (such as migrants).

    Instead they appear to be appealing to the the intellectual elites and the migrants.

    But it's hard to know whether the kind of people who go to university are changed by their experience, or whether they were that way inclined to start with.

    Maybe these people have just been educated beyond their intelligence, or educated out of common sense and into stupidity.

    » The Right Man for Job   2002-12-28 21:28 Strawman
    Someone has to ..

    Whenever the coalition is in opposition it rumbles about slashing ABC funding, but whenever they are in power, the rumblings seem to fall quiet. The typically left-wing ABC bias seems to jump a little to the center too.

    A report in the The Australian 2002-12-28-p5 suggests a reason.

    Former federal Liberal party president Tony Staley has firmed as favourite to replace Michael Kroger on the ABC board.

    He is regarded as more a 'palatable' option than Peter (who's using my phone card) Reith.

    We see a hidden use for the ABC - puting the burnt-out political parties' cronies out to pasture.

    At around $AU550M per year (the budget of your ABC), this is an inefficient way to force the tax-payer to slosh a few mil' to some political cronies, but it also keeps that special little interest group 'Friends of the ABC' happy, and helps the Liberal party pick up a few votes, as some of them decide that 'maybe the Liberals are not all bad'.

    But if it's my ABC, then can I choose to stop paying my 10c per day please?

    No. Our government, ostensibly dedicated to free enterprise, isn't yet willing to abandon the Stalinist symbolism of the state controlled media enterprise. Not when it's so useful to them.

    Corporatizing the ABC and issuing equal shares to every Australian citizen (after all, it's your ABC) might be good democracy, but it would create problems with giving jobs for the boys.

    » Clarity lost in Drug Haze   2002-12-27 20:58 Strawman
    No joy from ecstasy bust

    Drug enforcement officers have made what they claim is Australia's largest ecstasy bust. 750,000 tablets with a street value of $45M were seized from a Sydney property in the culmination of a 4 month long operation involving Federal, NSW and Netherlands police.

    For the uninitiated - people on ecstasy tend to walk around suckling chuppa-chups and saying 'I love you' between gently fondling each other's genitals at so called 'rave parties'. Stopping them from irritating you is as easy as snapping 'go away, loser', and alcohol is typically banned at such events. The only significant risk these losers pose is to themselves.

    Authorities were very quick to tell people the street value of the drugs, but so far have made no announcements about how much taxpayer's money they have wasted on this operation, or how much will be wasted on court costs and imprisoning people.

    Nor have they made any announcement of the cost of the theft, assaults, rapes and murders they have been unable to prevent because of their myopic focus on preventing people from exercising their free choice of taking drugs.

    One of the reasons that people think drugs should be illegal is because people should be stopped from self-harm. Harming people to prevent them doing self-harm is sophistry worthy of a communist dictator - using the old cliche "This hurts us more than it hurts you"?

    If only it weren't true.

    » Underage 'Dating' in Japan   2002-12-27 14:44 Strawman
    Another government beat-off

    Your ABC 2002-12-26 reports on a Japanese government initiative to closely monitor Internet dating.

    Short of cutting access to selected overseas sites (as the Chinese and Vietnamese have chosen to do), there really isn't much that can be done against Internet sites which ignore the wishes of a particular country. Recent court cases in Australia suggest that people can be made responsible for material on their sites, but this assumes that the people involved can a) be identified, and b) brought into the jurisdiction of the government in question.

    And of course the harder a particular government pushes the issue, the more businesses will choose to operate from an overseas base, and the less taxes it can collect for pork-barreling.

    But the Japanese seem to realize this, so the primary focus seems to be on punishing individuals who use the site - particularly underage prostitutes. [A note for the intellectuals: a few well selected keywords on the Google search engine provides excellent insight into the extra-curriculum activities of many "Japanese schoolgirls"].

    Presumably the laws against underage prostitution are there to protect the underage prostitutes - which they intend to do by punishing them. Talk about blaming the victim! Maybe government officials are just angry because Japanese schoolgirls can't see the point of paying taxes to government officials who want to regulate their extra-curriculum activities.

    Governments have to look like they are doing something - even if it is detrimental. It's a pity though, that they they can't even keep their hands off underage prostitutes.

    » Shooting Gallery in Ho Chi Minh City   2002-12-24 13:48 Strawman
    Shoot this

    Australian drug trafficker Le My Linh faces a firing squad in Ho Chi Minh City after her appeal against her death sentence failed.

    We can expect the usual outrage from Civil Libertarians, right to lifers, libertarians and trendy lefties, who will be up in arm about this decision, but shouting mobs are rarely rational, even though extreme situations are always the best for imposing rationality on.

    Punishing people for taking drugs is both stupid and immoral. Any intelligent person recognizes this. Punishing people for supplying drugs is only marginally less stupid and immoral. Unfortunately, however, we live in a stupid and immoral world.

    It's tempting to see Le My Linh as someone who took advantage of the free market - she had a product (supply), there was a customer (demand), she lubricated the market, and aided in the transaction. Not really - in fact she took advantage of the black market. The free-market value of the 888g of heroin she was attempting to smuggle back to Australia would hardly have paid for her in-flight meals. The reason why her little importation business seemed attractive was precisely because of its illegality.

    She took advantage of the illegality of the drugs, it seems a little rich to now call herself a victim if their illegality.

    Le My Linh is no different than someone who makes a deal: You play Russian Roulette, if you win you get 30,000 and if you lose .. well you get shot, OK? While most of us wouldn't choose to play such a game, the number of children locked in cars outside casinos demonstrates there are many who would. Many people choose to take risks.

    The black market offers a strange paradox - the greater the risk, the greater the profit, and therefore the greater the temptation. If the risk (and consequently the profit) had been less, would Le My Linh have bothered to take it? She is merely someone who lost the bet.

    After she is executed, people will be reminded of the very real risks, the prices will increase accordingly, and others will choose to take similar risks because of the greater gains.

    Think of it as a kind of free-black-market.

    And while the notion that all Australians are equal is an attractive one, the history of Le My Linh is worth examining. She was born in 1959, and emigrated to Australia in 1979 (at age 20). She has joined the group of Australian citizens and then gone back to her native country to knowingly break its laws. She, more than anyone would have been aware of cost of failure. What obligations does the Australian taxpayer have to attempt to protect her?

    Le My Linh's only chance now is a presidential appeal or for communist Vietnam to become sensible and rational before her execution. That hasn't happened anywhere else in the world, and the chances of it happening first in a communist country seem rather remote. Fire away.

    » Bomb Building in Australia   2002-12-23 23:29 Strawman
    Cottage Industry or Hobby?

    People were shocked after September-11 that Islamic fundamentalists could actually conduct suicide attacks on US soil. It was felt that the fundamentalists would be softened (corrupted) by having close contact with the West.

    In the same way that zombies brainwashed by fanatical communist countries can be deprogrammed with just a few visits to MacDonalds and a trip to the movies (without once being asked to show their papers or having their genitals sniffed by drug dogs on the MET), it was felt that fundamentalist Muslims would similarly self-deprogram over time.

    How wrong they were!

    However the latest wanna-be home bomber may test the convictions of the rednecks and PC crowd equally.

    South African born Gill Daniels was arrested in Sydney after police claim to have found ammonium nitrate, batteries and wires in his flat when they turned up to evict him after he neglected to pay his rent.[ref]

    His lawyer has both rejected any connection with terrorism and claimed that this will be used as an excuse for more Muslim bashing. Yup, you guessed it - this man is a member of the Religion of Peace.

    All may not be as it appears though, as apparently this man has a deep-seated hatred of his ex-wife and mother in-law. Just like every Australian man who has experienced the 'gender neutrality' of the family law court first-hand! Surely an adequate explanation for the half-constructed bombs?

    How could we harshly judge a man who has integrated into Australian culture so well? Blowing up the ex- is a bit extreme, but the story he will tell in court will doubtless gain sympathy from at least some of the 'experienced' jury members. Then they'll put him away because anyone who broods enough to make a dozen bombs in his kitchen is menace to society.

    Any civilized person would just use a gun.

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